The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell below its “uptrend line” since August, suggesting the gauge of U.S. equities is more likely to make new lows for the year before reaching new highs, Dahlman Rose & Co. said.
The index fell 1.2 percent to 1,317.37 yesterday, breaking below the trend line that’s established by connecting the lows on August 26 and March 16, Bloomberg data show. That breakdown put the S&P 500 at risk of falling toward a cloud support on the ichimoku chart for a third time this year, said Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose. The bottom of the cloud support sat at 1,296.56 recently, which would represent a 1.6 percent decline.
“Further clarification should come on a qualified downside breach of the bottom of the daily cloud,” Bensignor said. “We raise the yellow caution flag, amidst a market that is still predominated by an absence of true substantial long-only selling.”
Technical analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.