Fundamentals Have no Part in my Trading Decisions, Says Trevor Neil, Course Director of Technical Analysis Workshops in Singapore and Hong Kong
In an interview conducted by Amber Hestla with Trevor Neil, Managing Director, BETA Group, and course director of the upcoming Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 (Singapore, June 20th-21st 2011, and Hong Kong, June 23rd-24th 2011, he explains why fundamental analysis has no part in most of his trading decisions, and why he doesn’t like to make long term predictions about the markets.
Do you look at any fundamental or economic inputs to develop your opinions?
Fundamentals have no part in my trading decision. If my horizon were longer they would. I have to know when results, GDP, non-farm payroll, etc., are due but they do not affect my trading decisions.
What technique do you rely on the most? Can you describe this tool?
In my training work I specialize in many advanced trading techniques. But my favorite is the work of Tom DeMark. I find his work stunning in its precision. I love the way he thinks. When I was at Bloomberg, I had the privilege to get to know him and appreciate his work. He was the reason I left. I wanted to get back into the markets and with a colleague formed a hedge fund to trade using DeMark techniques. I was that convinced and it is still my favorite. I have done well by using his work. I owe him a lot.
Can you share any longer-term market opinions?
I always thing technical analysts should not make long term predictions and I always decline requests from TV to forecast the stock market for the year and so forth. Every day is a new piece of data and I can be bullish now but can change my mind if something in the chart changes. In all cases, as long as the patterns of rising tops and rising bottoms (or lower tops and lower bottoms) remains intact. When will the patterns be broken? I don’t know.
What advice would you have for someone starting in the business today?
It is a lot harder now than it was when I started. My first job was at Merrill Lynch in 1975. In those days they were so hungry for people, they would take anyone. Within three months of joining I was on the floor. It is not like that now. It is a lot harder.