Monthly Archives: June 2011

Gasoline Price

 Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

Gasoline Price

Most traders in the commodity and energy markets watch technical levels very closely. Some say that prices follow technicals because traders watch the technical levels. Others (especially those who practice Elliott Wave Analysis) would say that when the herd mentality rules the market, certain types of movements can be anticipated, not because traders watch those levels, but because the underlying emotions of greed and fear tend to exert their influence on the markets.
Typically, when prices break below the immediately preceding low, we will hear from some market participants that they are now more bearish. However, using Elliott Wave Analysis, one can say with a reasonable degree of confidence that Gasoline will probably experience one more rally that will take it back to at least the 316 level, more likely to the 323 levels.

Should such a rally materialize as I am anticipating, these same traders who became bearish at the lows will turn bullish. Alas, that will be a trap for many because the completion of five waves in the larger rally that finished at 348 would require a much deeper correction, perhaps down to the 250 levels. So Elliott Wave Analysts would then call Gasoline down from near 323.

Todays Outlook for Dow Jones, S&P 500 and 10 year T-note

 Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

Outlook for Dow Jones, S&P 500

Dow Jones:

Dow fell short of the first target of 12324/32 as the market took a tumble once again towards the 12162 target which as stated yesterday was good support and did hold this sell off as predicted.

The bounce has been held by the first Fibonacci level of 12275 but being oversold in the short term we could still hold to support at 12178/62 again today. However if this support were to give way and we hold a break below 12140, we look for further weakness down to 12100/90 and then 12058/36 if today’s non farm is really that bad!
Now if we can hold and head higher we look for a return to first Fibonacci level of 12275/80. If we manage to break above here today look for 12305/13 and then perhaps a challenge of 12324/35. This looks like very tough resistance today but if we can break higher through 12350 look for 12370/85 for a selling opportunity.

S&P500:

S&P has no change really…It was quite a quiet day in the market with good support once more holding the downside.
Two trend lines are located at 1308 and 1304, and the med term 50% fib level is at 1311 so we do have quite a bit of support down here….It is quite a low risk trade to buy weakness hoping the previous 1302 low can hold…If we can hold this support then we shall see a return to the 1322/24 resistance initially… Now we could be making a large H&S pattern on the daily charts..Obviously this is not confirmed by any means, but it seriously something we have to be aware of over the next few weeks….

If we lose 1302 we are looking at 1295 as the short term targeted area.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis 3 June 2011

 Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

GBP/USD Technical Analysis 3 June 2011

GBP/USD 1.6351 – 3 June 2011

GBP/USD Open 1.6359 High 1.6419 Low 1.6304 Close 1.6369

On Thursday Pound/Dollar was trading within 110 pip range, in line with the neutral Interbank sentiment at almost +3%. The Cable appreciated from 1.6304 to 1.6419, than dropped, losing all above gains yesterday, closing the day at 1.6369. Today the British Pound is trading very quietly and within within yesterday’s range for the time being. On the 1 hour chart the upward channel was broken downwards, while on the 3 hour chart trading is within wide range. First resistance is yesterday’s peak at 1.6419. Break above it should extend the bullish movement further towards 1.6540. The nearest support is yesterday’s bottom and level at 1.6304. Going bellow it should extend British Pound‘s reduction further down towards next downward objective 1.6190. Today is the UK CIPS services index at 8:30 GMT. Quotes are moving just bellow the almost even 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating slim bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and declining, MACD is negative and quiet, while CCI has thinly crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving overall light short signals.
Technical resistance levels: 1.6419 1.6540 1.6667
Technical support levels: 1.6304 1.6190 1.6057

Trading range: 1.6365 – 1.6290
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6351 SL 1.6381 TP 1.6301

Already made +13 pips profit on GBP/USD today from the following signal:
5:30 GMT+1 Sell GBP/USD at 1.6345 SL 1.6371 TP 1.6285, exit sent at 7:08 GMT+1.
Today so far +52, yesterday +110, as shown in details at http://www.zifx.com/performance.php.

Read More at:http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/156864/20110603/gbp-usd-technical-analysisjune-2011.htm

Interview to Trevor Neil: Vision of Technical Analysis (Part 2)

Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

Trevor Neil being an Instructor for Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

TA: During your time at Bloomberg, how did you see the use of technical analysis develop in the markets? Do you think TA is applied to a greater extent in some markets (ie FX) than others?

TN: I think that technical analysis as a technique did take a path through the markets. When the T-Bond contract started in the 1970’s, many of the floor traders crossed from the grain pit to trade bonds taking their TA skill with them and through to the cash market. Then came the IMM currency contracts and S&P500 index futures. I think TA skills passed back to the cash market via the futures market. The acceptance of TA in the equity market was slower. But this
is changing now probably lead by the retail market which tends to be very sold on technical analysis. I think the rule determining the effectiveness of technical analysis is: the better the liquidity, the less the security can be manipulated by an entity or group, the better it works. I would add that it does not work well on low priced securities.

TA: You have spoken a great deal on combining technicals and fundamentals. Do you consider this is vital even for the most technical of traders?

TN: This must be the ultimate weapon. Even then I look more towards a quantitative valuation for help. I want to know if a company is already fully valued if I am long of it. Just as I would want to know if it’s RSI is at 98%. However, that is not necessarily a reason to sell out. Many overvalued and overbought stocks go on to double in price. I look for fundamental analysis to answer the question “what?” and technical analysis to answer the question “when?”.

TA: Because so much TA experience is gained on the job and passed from one trader to the next, does this mean there is great scope for more formal and structured education in TA apart from what the STA is achieving?

TN: I do agree many traders I meet use technical analysis heavily but learned it from the guy next to them or from a book. They are aware that they are making trades on the basis of two lines crossing but do not understand what this actually means. What is a reading of 15% in the RSI actually telling you? Why is it sometimes not a buy but a sell? Traders want this deeper understanding because large money is at stake. I try to give a sound and relevant skill to the trader.

TA: Rather than general TA education is there demand for training in more specialized and advanced TA techniques such as Elliott Wave, candlesticks and the use of indicators and oscillators?

TN: There is without question. I was in Frankfurt recently were everyone on the institutional sales desk was a TD Sequential user. They saw it as their most important indicator for short term trades yet they wanted time with someone
who understood it intimately and who actually used it. I was also asked recently to do a seminar for an energy desk where most of the traders used Elliott Wave. Basically they had all taught each other over the years so wanted it reexplained
properly as some bad habits had crept in.

TA: Do you think banks and fund managers are well catered for in this respect?

TN: I think there is a real skill shortage in this area. There are very few people in the technical analysis world who have a genuinely broad knowledge of the subject. Also, there are few who trade actively. Traders really notice this and appreciate it. There are few people who have had this privilege.

TA: Do you still use Bloomberg for your charting?

TN: It might be I use Bloomberg because I am used to it. Show me something better and I’ll switch!

Technical Analysis for Crosses

 Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis on June 2nd

GBP/JPY

Yesterday’s anticipated collapse has formed a long black candlestick pattern as seen on the provided daily graph. This candlestick succeeded in sending the pair below 76.4% Fibonacci of CD leg for our captured bearish harmonic butterfly pattern where it closed below the middle line of Keltner channel. Thus, we hold onto our bearish predications over intraday basis retargeting the full correctional level of the aforesaid leg. Note that areas of 131.20 might slow down the bearishness since 88.6% retracement resides there.

The trading range for today is among key support at 128.40 and key resistance at 135.50.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 118.80 as far as areas of 150.75 areas remain intact.

Support: 131.60, 131.05, 130.50, 129.40, 128.40
Resistance: 133.15, 133.65, 134.20, 134.80, 135.50

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 132.60 targeting 130.05 and stop loss above 134.55 might be appropriate.

EUR/GBP

The previous expected fluctuation continued dominating the movements where the pair is achieving volatile movements within a tight range due to the positivity of Stochastic. At the same time, the bearish trend which started at 0.9040- the PRZ- of our efficient bearish Gartley pattern might continue due to the negative sign of AROON. Hence, we should be patient until a breakout occurs below 0.8730-0.8715 areas to make sure that the pair will move downwards after unloading Stochastic sign. Carefully note that the four hour interval offers a negative sign on its RSI 14 and that may assist the pair to breach the aforementioned levels on its way towards 0.8660- 50% of CD leg- followed by 0.8570.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 0.8630 and key resistance now at 0.8915.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 0.7780 as far as areas of 0.8965 remain intact.

Support: 0.8750, 0.8730, 0.8715, 0.8680, 0.8655
Resistance: 0.8820, 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8915

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair with a breakout below 0.8730 targeting 0.8580 and stop loss above 0.8820 might be appropriate.

Oil Technical Analysis for June 2, 2011

 

 

Advanced Market Timing

technical analysis for oil

The CL pulled back during the Wednesday session, falling back to the $100 support level. In a session that saw a lot of destruction across several markets, this is actually a sign of solid support as it has held. The market still looks bullish because of this, and could be bought. Until we break below $92.50 – we don’t sell.

The Brent contract traded in an almost identical fashion as the CL on Wednesday, pulling back to the massive $115 support area, and holding. Just as the CL looks bullish, so does this contract. Until we break below $105, we aren’t selling at all.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/11/06/1130414/oil-technical-analysis-for-june-2-2011#ixzz1O9Kff386

 

 

 

 

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis 2 June 2011

 Advanced Market Timing Experts Workshop 2011 Master Market Timing with the Leading Technical Analyst

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD 1.6317 – 2 June 2011

GBP/USD Open 1.6335 High 1.6497 Low 1.6304 Close 1.6331

On Wednesday Pound/Dollar decreased significantly with 180 pips, in converse with the positive Interbank sentiment at above +8%. The Cable depreciated from 1.6497 to 1.6314 yesterday, closing the day at 1.6331. Today the British Pound weakend further, dropping down to 1.6304. On the 1 hour chart the upward channel was broken downwards, while on the 3 hour chart trading is within wide range. First resistance is yesterday’s peak at 1.6497. Break above it should extend the bullish movement further towards 1.6618. The nearest support is yesterday’s bottom and level at 1.6304. Going bellow it should extend British Pound‘s reduction further down towards next downward objective 1.6190. There are no major economic events for UK today. Quotes are moving bellow the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and calm, MACD is negative and quiet too, while CCI has crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving overall light short signals.
Technical resistance levels: 1.6497 1.6618 1.6750
Technical support levels: 1.6304 1.6190 1.6057

Trading range: 1.6330 – 1.6255
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6317 SL 1.6347 TP 1.6267

Already made +25 pips profit on GBP/USD today from the following signal:
5:26 GMT+1 Buy GBP/USD at 1.6331 SL 1.6305 TP 1.6391, exit sent at 7:19 GMT+1.
Today so far +89, yesterday +102, as shown in details at http://www.zifx.com/performance.php.